Hong Kong home prices notched their strongest half-year performance in eight years, with a widely watched index breaking above the 160 mark and approaching a near three-year high. The latest reading of the Centa-City Leading Index (CCL), which tracks secondary residential prices, climbed 0.52% week-on-week to 160.77, marking a fifth consecutive weekly gain and a cumulative rise of 2.11% over that period. The level is the highest since early September 2023, or 147 weeks.

Measured over the first six months of the year, the CCL advanced 11.56%, the biggest half-year increase since a 13.2% jump in the first half of 2018. The gain sharply outstripped the 4.7% rise recorded for the whole of 2025, exceeding that full-year performance by 6.86 percentage points. Centaline Property’s research department attributes the turnaround to a decline in HIBOR from May 2025 and two rounds of local bank rate cuts last year, which together helped prices bottom out and reverse course. From the low of 135.16 points when H‑rate mortgages again fell below their cap in May last year, the CCL has now risen 18.95%; compared with the 134.89 level before the March 2025 budget, it is up 19.19%. The index is now 18.34% above its level before the first rate cut in September 2024, and its gap from the historic peak of 191.34 in August 2021 has narrowed to 15.98%.

The latest advance has been broad-based across market segments. The CCL Mass, covering large housing estates, rose 0.43% week-on-week to 162.19, extending its climb for a third week and accumulating a 1.60% gain to the highest level since late August 2023. The sub-index for small and medium-sized units rose 0.50% to 160.78, also up for three straight weeks and 1.62% higher over that stretch, while the large-unit index gained 0.61% to 160.71, its fourth weekly rise in a row and a 3.64% gain over that period. On a half-year basis, all eight major price indices increased, with six of them advancing more than 10%. The overall CCL was up 11.56%, CCL Mass 11.72%, small and medium units 11.56% and large units 11.53%.

By district, Hong Kong Island outperformed the rest of the city by a wide margin, underscoring a pronounced “luxury effect” in the current upcycle. The Island’s mass-housing index climbed 1.41% in the latest week to 164.11, its third straight weekly gain and a 3.78% advance over that period, reaching a 149-week high dating back to mid-August 2023. Over the first half, Island prices surged 17.09%, compared with gains of 11.33% in Kowloon, 8.71% in New Territories East and 9.17% in New Territories West. In the latest week, New Territories West rose 0.39% to 144.9, a high not seen since early October 2023, while New Territories East edged up 0.15% to 172.43, near its early-September 2023 peak. Kowloon slipped 0.1% to 161.13 but remained at its second-highest level since early July 2023.

Despite the sharp rebound in prices, Centaline’s research team expects the pace of appreciation to moderate in the coming months. They cite a pullback in Hong Kong equities, a slower launch pipeline for new developments, more hardline pricing stances among second-hand sellers and a visible drop in transaction volumes, alongside the possibility of US rate hikes, as factors likely to cap further gains. The firm is targeting 165 points for the CCL in the third quarter, implying a further rise of 4.23 points, or about 2.63%, from current levels.